I guess not guarding the borders well will now be a whole lot more expensive than it used to be.  For every undocumented alien who gets into the U.S., the health care cost will just keep on going up.  I have to say that if I were thinking about moving back to the U.S. given the proposed coverage I would do it for that alone.

It used to be that being a citizen of the U.S. meant something, but I guess that now it does not.  I can hardly wait to hear what happens when they turn away veterans and people who are paying massive taxes because the services are being soaked up by those who are here illegally.  That should turn out to be an interesting sight.

I don’t know about you, but I think this is a terrible proposal that has been added to the plan.  Health care coverage was never supposed to be about taking care of everyone, it was about taking care of U.S. citizens who could not afford coverage.  If we do not know who is a citizen, that is a failure that must be fixed before we move forward.

As discussed on this site within other posts, there are some who believe that we will not turn around this mess without having housing prices stabilize and turn back up.  There are just too many people who will continue to hit deep negative equity water and dump more real estate onto the market.

I really don’t expect to see prices continue to drop at 32% or more per year, which has been the case here in Las Vegas.  The prices are likely to continue to decrease in price at a decreasing rate.  Las Vegas, unlike many other cities, is adjusting quickly to price drops and my expectation is that we will hit the bottom sooner than many others.  That could occur when home prices find their way below the cost of construction or below their expected or forecasted value based on historic trends.

At some point the psychological aspect of the housing market will change, and assuming credit is available, there will be more people willing to consider a purchase.  The fact that things have fallen so far is of course going to stigmatize the entire market for quite a while. 

When will it happen?  That’s the trillion dollar question that no one can answer.  In Las Vegas we are already seeing many properties sell below what it would cost to construct them.  When you get to about $ 70 per square foot for an average home here, you are near or below the cost of construction (which includes the lot and site improvements).

When you consider the fact that the unemployed are staying that way for a longer and longer period, you can begin to understand why polls are saying that there is an “erosion of confidence” in our economic system. 

The problem is that there are no real signs that things are turning around.  The Press wants to jump on anything.  If a dog barks, or home prices stabilize in Beverly Hills, it must be an economic recovery.  In reality things are likely to get worse in 2009 with continued housing market problems and a new wave of commercial defaults and foreclosures coming our way.

No one really knows if 2010 will end this down market or if it will take much longer.  Real estate cycles can last decades.  In Las Vegas we have been told that there is a 5 year supply of commercial buildings, condos and homes that will have to be absorbed in order for us to return to normal.  Unless we see a mass exodus from California, which is not entirely unrealistic, it will take much longer than most people are willing to admit.

I’m not trying to be negative here, just report some dire information about our economy and the direction in which it is headed.  I am looking forward to the time when things get better, but it appears that we have to prepare for more pain not less.

It will be some trick if a  government sponsored national health care plan manages to survive without creating massive supply and demand distortions.  I’m still trying to figure out how my doctor, who I struggle to see when I need him, is going to take on twice as many patients as he now has and still provide me with a valuable service.  Most of the time I currently see his Physician’s Assistant or his Nurse, so if he doubles his load I will only bee seeing a medical tech of some kind.  I might as well just buy a good medical book.

I am also interested in knowing why my employer would be willing to continue to pay for my somewhat expensive health care coverage when he knows that I could at any time go on a much cheaper federal plan. 

As I have noted on this blog in the past, I’m not totally against changing the system that now exists.  I think the system is not being run in our best interest, how can it be when it is a puppet that belongs to big insurance companies?  Health care is one of those sacred areas where capitalism just shouldn’t be.  Do we need to make a buck on everything?  Years ago society left health care to health care providers.  Now it is run like a consulting business and you will find that, unless you are wealthy, you simply can’t afford those top shelf services that you may absolutely need.

A restructuring of the health care system is relatively easy.  Fix prices for services, and have the prices associated with hard costs . . not associated with lost profits as they are today.  Get the insurance companies out of the health care industry once and for all, but don’t substitute the government, that’s crazy.

it’s an eye opener because the article identifies negative equity as the main cause for mortgage foreclosure, not mortgage rate changes or unemployment, which many thought were the reasons. 

It is important to understand that foreclosure are happening because people are finding themselves in debt holes that are so deep that it would take them decades to get out of them, and rather than spend every dollar that they earn trying to make it right (pay it back), people are just walking away.

I imagined that most of the defaults were being made by individuals who were being forced into foreclosure because they could not make their mortgage payments, but negative equity foreclosures are made by people to proactively elect to default.  They are simply trying to better their financial situation.

I can identify with people who don’t want to be straddled with hundreds of thousands of dollars of mortgage debt.  It was fun buying the Mercedes and touring Europe, but when property values dropped and you find that you have to pay it all back, that is just downright brutal, right? 

Based on this new found knowledge, I will again speculate that the American people will elect to default on their large mult-trillion dollar debt in the next several years rather than pay for it via huge tax increases.  California is effectively defaulting its 24 billion budget shortfall via its I.O.U. program.  They should be starting from scratch with a zero based budget, and kill progarms that they just can’t afford, but in the American tradition they would rather default that accept the fact that they simply could not afford them.

So part of the question is, do you want to continue down the path that you are on, with private health insurance companies taking huge profits and increasing premiums to the point of absurdity, or should things change?

The war of words going on in the press today has pitted the greedy insurance companies against inept politicians.  The insurance company representatives, usually highly paid Doctors, keep telling us that the government will turn out to be worse than they are.  I think that is rich, don’t fall for government control of the health care system because they will screw you worse than we have . . great defense guys. 

While there are some individuals who are lucky enough to have lifetime coverage, most of us will hit a point where we can no longer afford it.  I have read that you need $ 200,000 to $ 300,000 in savings just to pay health insurance premiums if you want to retire.  That means if you are not one of the lucky few who have paid lifetime coverage or who can pay the discussed premiums from savings you will also suffer the same fate, health insurance cancellation.

Personally I don’t think the argument that doctors will leave the industry in droves because they won’t be able to get rich is a farce.  If you provided even a portion of the excess that is going to insurance company profits you could increase what doctors received, and then maybe they could make more decisions based on what is best for patients and not on what is best for the Big Bucks Insurance Company profits.

I hate to see more government intrusion into the health care market, but if you talk to people who think the government is there as a last resort to help them, for example veterans or helpless elderly individuals, you will find that they are shunned if they can’t pay monster premiums.  Many people are fooled into thinking that existing programs help people when the help is minimal or non-existent.

The question, do you need health insurance, can more easily be answered with a resounding no than an impossible to achieve coverage yes.  If you can see in the relatively short term future that health insurance premiums, that now cost a typical family at or above $ 8,000 per year, may become unaffordable.  Then there really isn’t much decision making with regard to the changes being presented.

I read an article by Martin D. Weiss, PhD entitled “California Collapsing” on the Internet, it is located at http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/california-collapsing-34271 and it is an eye opening report.  I knew there were some serious problems going on in the state but an 11.5% unemployment rate and a $ 24.3 billion dollar budget deficit were surprising numbers to discover.

With a mind numbing budget crisis, crushing debt, high unemployment, commercial real estate defaults increasing and a new wave of mortgage resets with 50% to 80% defaults likely in the home mortgage market, it is going to be a rough ride in the short-term future and in Dr. Weiss’s opinion there is ” a very HIGH probability that California will default.”

It has been my opinion that we would inflate our way out of our massive debt, but a default by a major state like California would solve their problem and possibly others much quicker.  Sure it would devastate a lot of people’s lives, but the government has already decided that a California bail out is not as important as the Wall Street bail outs since it has repeatedly turned California down flat after several requests for additional funds.

I have not been in favor of any bail-outs, so the near trillion dollars that was set aside for them has always seemed more than a bit unfair.  Many have asked, why bail out Wall Street and not states?  The default of a huge state government would bring with it an extremely bad precedent that may be followed by a number of smaller defaults.  I expect that the default of California would bring a number of other defaults, a virtual “house of cards,” that would be even worse for the general public than that which came from the Chrysler failure.

The liquidation of well over a million vehicles, in what has been a poor market for vehicle sales, will negatively impact Ford and foreign manufacturers.  Some have predicted that the sell off will cause massive layoffs as production is decreased, and that prices may increase on other vehicles in response to the disruption.

While no one knows just how bad things will get, it is clear that even under some of the most optomistic scenarios Michigan will be suffering over the next several years, and Michigan’s losses affect us all.  The black hole that will be created by primary and secondary job loss in Michigan will ripple through the State and adjoining states.  The job losses from the closure of hundreds of dealerships will hit many more states at a time when job retention is critical. 

There will be more waves in time as iron ore mining, steel, aluminum and parts manufacturing plants are hit.  Regardless of your ideology regarding the necessity for the market to allow such failures, expect the adjustment process will be painful for many.

1. The Doctor’s First Priority is to Save You;  You can find out the hard way, like I have, that the doc is interested in doing things the “acceptable” way and all others are not considered.  The perfect example of this is the treatment of c-diff, a nasty intestinal super bug that takes over when you have killed everything else in your gut by taking strong antibiotics.  The doc says there is no way to replace your bugs and he would rather you die than be treated with an “experimental” method.  The fact of the matter is that doctors wear blinders, and you had better take the responsibility of finding out about alternate treatments, because they won’t be suggested to you.

2. Lawyers Represent You;  Sure in some wacked-out sense I guess they do.  Fact of the matter is that they are “officers of the court” and they understand that they live and die in the legal system.  I have been sold out by a number of attorneys over the years, they simply will not act as they are directed to by their clients.  Lawyers actually believe that whatever they decide to do on your behalf was in your best interest.  The greed and corruption that goes on within the legal system is so far from the ideals that people believe in that you have to be a fool to think that they are one in the same.

3. Things Will Always get Better; well maybe they will, and maybe they won’t, of course the real question that most people want answered is “will things get better for me in my lifetime?”  If you look back through time you see some good times and lots of bad, so it just depends if you are lucky enough to have lived during a period of good times.  Good times are also relative to the individual who is living them, I’m sure that there were some people who prospered during the great depression.

4. The Government Will Take Care of You; I think that this misconception is being tested of late, since many people are realizing that the government may be able to print a lot of money, but it can’t really solve many problems with it.  A billion here a trillion there and what do you get?  Usually just a whole lot of nothing.  If you want to find out about what the government will do for you, start calling Veterans or people over 65 who are dealing with the health care system to survive.  Sorry to burst your bubble, but they simply will not be there when you need them.

5. You Will Receive Equal Treatment; Yes, when you reach the planet Krypton and they are preparing your body as food you will receive equal treatment.  Besides that possibility, your treatment as an equal here on earth is unlikely.  Sure you may be able to force someone to consider you as a player, you are drawing breath and you did pay the entry fee, but don’t think for a moment that you are receiving equal treatment, its a myth.

6. Luck Counts; Sure it does, but almost insignificantly.  If your only way out of your problem, whatever it may be, is to hope that you will get lucky, that things will change for you, you are well along the path toward failure.

7. Life is Fair; No, it is not.  People with quality food, shelter, drugs, health care and support systems live longer and likely enjoy their lives more than those without these things.  There will always be a battle between those who have and the have nots.  As we have seen in the past, even governments that claim that their sole purpose is the equal distribution of weath have failed. 

Don’t think for a minute that I don’t appreciate my own situation, that’s just another bad assumption on your part.  I just don’t think that some people have had time to pull back the curtains and see that there are “Wizards” behind them and that they are as biased and falible as any other humans who makes decisions.

Did you know that a recent national news story focused on the lack of availability of gun ammunition?  I’m not an alarmist, but I do wonder why there is a rush on gun ammo in this country?  It’s not bad enough that there are a gazillion guns out there, now everyone wants to hoard bullets?

The point is that, just like the evaopration of bullets from the gun shops shelves, the landscape of our future will likely experience rapid change over the next few years.  An inflation as predicted by many would likely flip the economy upside down, we could go from this period of impossible to find money that we are in to a time when we are awash with dollars.  Right now that is hard for many to imagine that scenario, but the psychology of the market can change quickly.

Its hard to point to an object or a service that you are familiar with and not anticipate that things related to it are already changing.  Autos, homes, energy, health care, jobs, money . . . its all in a state of transition, only the stars are (hopefully) not going to realign.

Beyond “expecting the unexpected” is there anything that you can do?  If you are in business, you can anticipate the increasing influence of the global economy by making your goods or services available to foriegn buyers.   You can also watch for the opportunities that rapid change will bring in your area of expertise.  Its difficult to forecast specifics about the future, but its not difficult to see that the world as we knew it is already beginning to change.